prijava
SARAJEVO, October 10 (FENA) - Economic analyst Borivoje Simić believes that it is pretty certain that the expected recession in Germany, but also in the entire Eurozone, will affect BiH exports, given that Germany is one of our main foreign trade partners.
“This will be reflected in the reduced consumption of the population, as a result of which there will be less demand for BiH goods. In particular, the furniture industry and the production of mattresses will feel consequences, as it is the number one export product of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Germany this year. The metal industry, which relies on the German automobile industry, will also have a negative impact,” said Simić for FENA.
However, as he added, it is difficult to predict the extent of the recession, as well as the energy crisis that causes inflation. Still, considering that winter is coming and no one can predict what will happen regarding the supply of energy resources, primarily gas, to Germany and other European countries, we should expect a decrease in economic activities.
Germany's leading economic institutes have estimated that Germany will face recession and inflation due to an uncertain energy supply situation.
In eight months of this year, BiH exported goods and services to Germany (330,086,178 kg) with a value of 1.78 billion KM and imported (555,693,009 kg) with a value of 1.72 billion KM.
“Given that the export of BiH to Germany in 2021 was (494,568,150 kg) with a value of 2.15 billion KM, and the import (855,608,202 kg) with a value of 2.11 billion KM, it is expected that the exchange between the two countries exceeds last year's, with a constant imports-exports ratio, while our country has a slight surplus,” said Simić.
He noted that Italy took first place in BiH's foreign trade exchange since only aluminum and aluminum products were exported to this country with a value of 427.7 million KM, and there is also traditionally footwear, given the presence of a large number of Italian companies from of this sector in BiH (export for eight months amounted to 184.5 million KM).
Some entrepreneurs believe that if there is a recession in Germany, it will not affect BiH exports to that country because we have quality products and solid contracts.
“It is possible that some companies have contracts and that by the end of the year there may not be any significant negative impact on BiH exports, but the new contracts that the companies will sign for next year could mean a reduction in orders. Nevertheless, the general sentiment on the market is such that the recession, which is actually already there, will affect the demand, and thus BH exports,” commented Simić.
According to him, Bosnia and Herzegovina relies more and more on its neighbors, and this is shown by the data on the significant growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina's exports to CEFTA countries, much higher than that achieved on the EU market.
(FENA) A. B.
